🐋 August Opens With Relief. The Week Decides Whether It Lasts

Desmond Hawk | August 3, 2026

A new month, and for once it opens on good news. Over the weekend the President called off a threatened strike on Iran — one he described in dramatic terms — and said negotiations would begin today, with talk of a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Markets did what markets do with relief: oil fell hard, and equity futures climbed.

But a calm open is not a calm week. Three things sit directly ahead that will matter far more than this morning’s bounce — the first-ever earnings from the most closely watched IPO in years, a full ladder of economic data, and on Friday the jobs report that could decide whether the Fed hikes in September. Let me lay out the week, because the relief is real but thin.

One. The conflict premium came out overnight

Start with the clearest move. After weeks of an on-again, off-again conflict, the weekend de-escalation pulled the conflict premium straight out of crude. West Texas oil fell roughly 7 percent toward $79, Brent about 6 percent toward $83, and Dow futures jumped around 686 points as the relief spread across risk assets.

Here’s the caution I’d hold onto. We have watched this exact pattern several times now — a flare-up spikes oil, a pause drops it — and each pause has proven fragile. The talks may hold this time, or they may not; Iranian state media gave no sign it had asked for the strike to be called off. Lower oil eases the inflation pressure on the Fed today, but one headline can reverse it. That worry about the dollar and the debt underneath it is exactly what the first promotion on my desk this week is built to sell.

SPONSORED

On April 16th, two things happened.

The U.S. Treasury executed a $15 billion buyback of its own debt — the largest in history.

And on that same day…

Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson publicly warned about a potential collapse in demand for U.S. bonds.

That’s not a random coincidence. It’s a clear signal of danger – one that everyone holding dollars needs to understand…

And after 20 years studying gold and debt cycles, I can tell you this:

When governments start aggressively buying their own debt…

You’re close to a breaking point… and that’s the moment when you cannot own enough gold.

Go here now to see the top four gold miners positioned for what comes next.

A Treasury buyback isn’t just “liquidity management” (or whatever pleasant-sounding name they choose to call it)...

It means the market doesn’t want any more US debt.

So the government steps in to buy its own bonds.

This doesn’t solve the problem – it delays it… and makes it worse. For over 30 years the US government has been “kicking the can down the road.”

Now, there’s no more road – and the can is getting too big to kick.

Because trillions in debt are still coming due – and the natural buyers are disappearing.

As the Fed steps in as the buyer of last resort, you will see money printing on a scale that will dwarf the 2008 and COVID crises.

Which means the biggest move in gold is still to come – and that’s why I’m writing to you...

Because the real upside won’t be in physical gold bullion.

It will show up in the miners still priced for a world that no longer exists.

Go here for details on the four best miners positioned to benefit from what comes next.

To your wealth,
Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT

P.S. The Treasury just bought back $15B of its own debt while insiders warn of collapsing demand. That could be the last warning before something cracks in the bond market. Go here to see the top four miners before things escalate.

Here the facts and the framing need separating carefully, because unusually, the facts check out. The Treasury did conduct its largest-ever single buyback in April, and former Secretary Paulson did publicly warn about the risk of a demand shock in U.S. debt — that much is real, and worth knowing. But two things the ad leaves out: Paulson himself stressed the timing is impossible to know and that he was not predicting an imminent collapse, and the Treasury describes these buybacks as routine liquidity management, not a distress signal. So the debt concern is legitimate and long-running; the leap to “you cannot own enough gold” and four specific miners “before things escalate” is the sales pitch bolted on top. Understand the risk slowly; don’t act on a countdown.

Two. SpaceX faces its first real test

This is the event I’d watch most this week. SpaceX — the first of the giant AI-era companies to go public — reports its first-ever quarterly earnings as a listed company tomorrow, before the open. Two days later, on Thursday, its IPO lock-up expires, freeing roughly 911 million pre-IPO shares — about $116 billion worth — to be sold.

The stock comes in wounded. It’s down about 50 percent from the roughly $225 high it hit within days of listing in June, trading near $108 — dragged lower in part by an all-stock acquisition that diluted shareholders. Two forces now collide: the earnings, which could reset the story, and the lock-up, which floods the market with new supply just as sentiment is fragile. How this lands matters well beyond one stock, because a near-trillion-dollar Anthropic listing is reportedly still eyeing October and watching how investors treat the first mover. That appetite for the next big space and AI story is what the second promotion this week runs on.

SPONSORED

Wall Street tells you to look at balance sheets.

I look at what the Pentagon tries to hide.

Recently, the founder of a tiny, under $5 space company gave a presentation to private investors.

He showed a single slide.

It listed the nations currently capable of sustained supersonic flight at extreme altitudes.

China. Russia. France. Great Britain.

And a small Florida company.

The Department of Defense actually asked him to stop showing that slide.

They did not want the world to know that this tiny, publicly traded startup was operating at the exact same level as major military powers.

My private intelligence contact, the man I call my Financial 007…

Uncovered exactly what this company has built.

It is a technology so advanced that it solves the biggest cost problem in the space industry.

A problem that even SpaceX has not been able to crack.

And right now, before the financial press finds out, you can still buy shares for less than $5.

But the window to get in before the market catches on is closing fast.

Click Here to See What The Pentagon Wanted Hidden

P.S. Some insiders have already taken their positions. Lockheed Martin and the United States Air Force are already paying customers. You have a choice. You can read about this after the stock price explodes, or you can get the ticker symbol right now. Click here to see my research dossier.

The “Pentagon wanted it hidden” and “Financial 007” framing is pure theatre, and a stock “under $5” that will “explode” once the press notices is the classic setup of a speculative small-cap pitch — the cheaper the share price, the louder the story tends to be. There may be a real aerospace supplier underneath it; there usually is. But a genuine defense contractor doesn’t need a secret-slide legend to justify owning it, and tiny stocks sold on urgency are where the most money gets lost. If it interests you, research the actual company slowly — not the dossier.

Three. Then the data starts

Underneath the headlines, this is a heavy data week — and it lands on a Fed that just held rates on a divided 9-to-3 vote, with three officials already wanting a hike. That makes every number this week a vote on September. Factory activity data comes today, job openings tomorrow, private payrolls and services on Wednesday, and the big one — the monthly jobs report — on Friday.

Friday’s jobs number is the one that moves the odds most. A hot labour market plus firm inflation is exactly the combination that pushes the three dissenters toward a majority; a soft number takes the pressure off. Everything between now and then is the market trying to guess which way it breaks. And the fear that sits closest to home in an uncertain week — the safety of your own bank account — is what the last, briefest promotion this week runs on.

SPONSORED

Do you have money in any of these banks?

Chase. Bank of America. Citigroup. Wells Fargo. U.S. Bancorp.

If you do…

Click here now because a new law could lead to the feds taking control of your bank account – for virtually any reason.

This could have a huge impact on your wealth.

This is the shortest pitch of the week and the one I’d treat most sceptically. “The feds could take your account for virtually any reason” is a fear hook, not a description of any actual law — naming the banks you use is designed to make a vague claim feel personal. There are real, worthwhile debates about financial privacy and government oversight of payments; this isn’t an explanation of one, it’s a doorway to a sales page. Bank your money where it’s insured, and treat “a new law could” as the alarm bell it is.

The relief in the tape is real, but it’s the quietest thing about this week. Earnings, a lock-up, and a jobs number are all still ahead — and any one of them can change the story the market told itself this morning.

Analyst's Note. Three promotions ran above — a gold-miners debt warning, a "Pentagon-hidden" space small-cap, and a bank-account scare. Each leans on a genuinely uncertain moment, and each sells something. So hold the real apart from the pitch. What's real: oil fell 6–7 percent on a weekend de-escalation and futures jumped; SpaceX reports its first public earnings tomorrow with a $116 billion lock-up expiring Thursday; the Fed held 9–3; and Friday's jobs report is the week's decisive number. Notably, the gold ad's core facts — an April Treasury buyback and Paulson's warning — are true, though the ad omits that Paulson refused to call a collapse imminent. What's marketing: "cannot own enough gold," secret Pentagon slides, and "a new law could take your account." The signal I'd carry into the week is patience — the calm open is the least reliable thing in front of us.

The Bottom Line

August begins with a gift — oil down, futures up, the conflict premium drained for now. But a good open is the easiest thing to overweight. The events that actually set the month’s direction are all still ahead: SpaceX’s first earnings and lock-up this week, a data ladder that feeds the September rate debate, and a Friday jobs number that could tip a Fed already split three ways.

The pattern of this whole summer has been relief that doesn’t hold and fear that gets sold. Both were on display again this morning. The discipline is to take the calm for what it is — a pause, not a resolution — and to keep your footing for the tests still coming.

Protect first. Position for the regime you’re actually in, and don’t mistake a quiet Monday for a settled month. Because the capital you keep is the only capital that compounds.

— Hawk